This summer’s world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018–2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.
Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected.
The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models1 to find ‘analogues’ of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century.
The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 – higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity.
Once the algorithm is ‘learned’ (a process which takes a few minutes), predictions are obtained in a few hundredths of a second on a laptop. In comparison, supercomputers require a week using traditional simulation methods.
For the moment, the method only yields an overall average, but scientists now would like to adapt it to make regional predictions and, in addition to temperatures, estimate precipitation and drought trends.
Learn more: 2018-2022 expected to be abnormally hot years
The Latest on: Global warming
via Google News
The Latest on: Global warming
- ‘India in a Warming World – Integrating Climate Change and Development’ review: Global warming and Indiaon November 30, 2019 at 4:02 am
It’s now possible to tell a slice of history of a country in terms of its engagement with climate change. India in a Warming World: Integrating Climate Change and Development edited by Navroz Dubash ...
- Model: Possible simultaneous impact of global warming on agriculture and marine fisherieson November 29, 2019 at 7:12 am
An international team of researchers has built a model that shows the possible simultaneous impact of global warming on agriculture and marine fisheries. In their paper published in the journal ...
- Global Warming 2019: Revolutionary System Could Provide Solutionon November 28, 2019 at 9:12 pm
The impacts of food production on the environment have been dramatically growing across the world. Unsustainable land use and greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to rising temperatures and other ...
- Global Warmingon November 28, 2019 at 1:04 pm
Who was the first person to sound the alarm, warning of global warming and the impact it might have? Few will recognize the name of Guy Stewart Callendar who published his warning in the Quarterly ...
- YOUR TAXES: Using tax against global warmingon November 28, 2019 at 12:13 pm
The OECD issued recently issued a report dealing with global warming using taxes (Taxing Energy Use, September 20, 2019). According to the OECD, taxing polluting sources of energy is an effective way ...
- Democrats must own global-warming issue | Commentaryon November 27, 2019 at 1:32 pm
Their worry shouldn’t be the gift, but rather how they choose to open it. The gift is global warming. Don’t call it climate change; that fuzzies the issue. Call it for what it is: global warming. It ...
- UN Climate Report Says ‘Destructive’ Global Warming Will Result From Unchecked Emissionson November 26, 2019 at 6:46 am
Crucial quote: “When looking back at the 10 years we have prepared the Emissions Gap Report, it is very disturbing that in spite of the many warnings, global emissions have continued to increase and ...
- Global warming makes Superfund sites more dangerous [Editorial]on November 26, 2019 at 4:14 am
Harvey was a category 4 when it made landfall in Texas and Louisiana. The GAO accused the EPA, now headed by former coal industry lobbyist Andrew Wheeler, of underestimating what global warming can do ...
- Old glacier photos show extent of global warmingon November 25, 2019 at 3:59 pm
The dramatic effect of global warming can be seen in Switzerland, where photos from the 19th century reveal the extent of glacial retreat when compared to new video from the same locations.
via Bing News