The global spread of green technologies must quicken significantly to avoid future rebounds in greenhouse gas emissions, a new Duke University study shows.
“Based on our calculations, we won’t meet the climate warming goals set by the Paris Agreement unless we speed up the spread of clean technology by a full order of magnitude, or about ten times faster than in the past,” said Gabriele Manoli, a former postdoctoral associate at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment, who led the study.
“Radically new strategies to implement technological advances on a global scale and at unprecedented rates are needed if current emissions goals are to be achieved,” Manoli said.
The study used delayed differential equations to calculate the pace at which global per-capita emissions of carbon dioxide have increased since the Second Industrial Revolution — a period of rapid industrialization at the end of the 19th century and start of the 20th. The researchers then compared this pace to the speed of new innovations in low-carbon-emitting technologies.
Using these historical trends coupled with projections of future global population growth, Manoli and his colleagues were able to estimate the likely pace of future emissions increases and also determine the speed at which climate-friendly technological innovation and implementation must occur to hold warming below the Paris Agreement’s 2o C target.
“It’s no longer enough to have emissions-reducing technologies,” he said. “We must scale them up and spread them globally at unprecedented speeds.”
The researchers published their peer-reviewed findings December 29 in the open-access journal Earth’s Future.
The analysis shows that per-capita CO2 emissions have increased about 100 percent every 60 years — typically in big jumps — since the Second Industrial Revolution. This “punctuated growth” has occurred largely because of time lags in the spread of emission-curbing technological advances, which are compounded by the effects of rapid population growth.
“Sometimes these lags are technical in nature, but — as recent history amply demonstrates — they also can be caused by political or economic barriers,” Manoli explained. “Whatever the cause, our quantification of the delays historically associated with such challenges shows that a tenfold acceleration in the spread of green technologies is now necessary to cause some delay in the Doomsday Clock.”
Receive an email update when we add a new CLIMATE CHANGE article.
The Latest on: Climate warming goals
via Google News
The Latest on: Climate warming goals
- Climate change, local efforts highlight United Nations discussion at Woodbury Universityon October 18, 2019 at 2:56 pm
Mahalak said that while climate action goals can seem far off, results are attainable ... “It’s just a huge, huge rainforest and I can’t emphasize enough how important that is to global warming,” he ...
- We need a real, fact-based debate on climate changeon October 18, 2019 at 8:22 am
In a 2005 Gallup poll asking people to identify America's biggest problem, global warming didn't even make it into the top ten concerns. Climate change adherents understood that if this lack of ...
- Progress on climate action stalls, hindering Paris Agreement goals – PwC reporton October 18, 2019 at 6:28 am
This is a stark warning of the potential knock-on impacts of more unpredictable weather patterns and events associated with climate change. South Africa’s gross domestic ... or the more ambitious ...
- Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goalson October 18, 2019 at 2:18 am
Achieving these goals will not be possible without a dramatic reduction in the construction ... Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2C. Nature ...
- Europe's Climate Push Won't Come Cheapon October 17, 2019 at 4:00 pm
Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Poland holds a veto to the European Union’s goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 ... the world is on track for ...
- Gov. Tony Evers signs executive order to create task force on climate changeon October 17, 2019 at 2:57 pm
Scott Walker, who downplayed the role humans play in a warming climate. Previously, Evers signed an executive order with a goal of eliminating carbon-based fuels by 2050. In that same order, he ...
- Corporate leaders: It’s time to lead on climate policyon October 17, 2019 at 8:02 am
That is the goal that scientists say is necessary to limit global warming and avoid unprecedented damage to our planet, our economy and our communities. Some companies are already taking action on ...
- Stopping Pipelines Helps the Climate Tomorrow—and Creates Headaches Todayon October 17, 2019 at 2:00 am
To reach the Paris Climate Agreement goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, many companies, states and countries plan to zero-out carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. With gas, ...
- California Warned It Might Not Achieve Its Ambitious Climate Goalson October 13, 2019 at 9:00 am
A California think tank is sounding the alarm that the state isn’t on track to meet ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals without dramatically picking up the pace. Complicating the effort, the ...
via Bing News