Researchers at Princeton, Columbia and Harvard have created a new method to analyze big data that better predicts outcomes in health care, politics and other fields.
The study appears this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A PDF is available on request.
In previous studies, the researchers showed that significant variables might not be predictive and that good predictors might not appear statistically significant. This posed an important question: how can we find highly predictive variables if not through a guideline of statistical significance? Common approaches to prediction include using a significance-based criterion for evaluating variables to use in models and evaluating variables and models simultaneously for prediction using cross-validation or independent test data.
In an effort to reduce the error rate with those methods, the researchers proposed a new measure called the influence score, or I-score, to better measure a variable’s ability to predict. They found that the I-score is effective in differentiating between noisy and predictive variables in big data and can significantly improve the prediction rate. For example, the I-score improved the prediction rate in breast cancer data from 70 percent to 92 percent. The I-score can be applied in a variety of fields, including terrorism, civil war, elections and financial markets.
“The practical implications are what drove the project, so they’re quite broad,” says lead author Adeline Lo, a postdoctoral researcher in Princeton’s Department of Politics. “Essentially anytime you might be interested in predicting and identifying highly predictive variables, you might have something to gain by conducting variable selection through a statistic like the I-score, which is related to variable predictivity. That the I-score fares especially well in high dimensional data and with many complex interactions between variables is an extra boon for the researcher or policy expert interested in predicting something with large dimensional data.”
The Latest on: Prediction tool
via Google News
The Latest on: Prediction tool
- FA Cup quarter-final betting preview: Predictions & free FA Cup tips for Sunday's three quarter-final tieson June 26, 2020 at 3:23 pm
Sunday is the big day for the FA Cup quarter-finals with three games taking place. Paul Higham has his preview and best bets.
- NASCAR at Pocono odds, predictions: Surprising 2020 Pocono Organics 325 picks by same model that hit Daytonaon June 26, 2020 at 6:31 am
Busch is a 5-1 co-favorite in Saturday's latest 2020 Pocono Organics 325 odds. NASCAR Cup points leader Kevin Harvick, who has never won at Pocono, is also at 5-1 in the current 2020 NASCAR at Pocono ...
- Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC/USD recovery an uphill task even as volatility looms – Confluence Detectoron June 25, 2020 at 10:00 pm
Bitcoin price recovery cut short marginally above $9,300 ahead of BTC futures contracts expiry. Volatility is expected to increase in the course of Friday’s trading sessions. Bitcoin price recovery ...
- UFC Fight Night predictions: Who has the edge between Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker?on June 25, 2020 at 5:07 am
Dustin Poirier is the favorite, but Dan Hooker has the type of power and skill to pull off the upset. See whom the experts are taking.
- New tool helps make predictions about hydraulic fracturing yieldson June 24, 2020 at 10:33 am
To better estimate oil and natural gas yields from hydraulic fracturing — the process of obtaining oil and natural gas from porous shale rock thousands of feet below the Earth’s surface via drilling — ...
- Much improved climate predictions from statistical mechanicson June 24, 2020 at 9:04 am
A study from the European Horizon 2020 TiPES project confirms that the large uncertainties of climate models used in the IPCC reports might be reduced considerably by the use of statistical mechanics.
- 2020 Travelers Championship odds: Surprising PGA picks, top predictions from model that nailed six majorson June 24, 2020 at 5:58 am
The 6,844-yard course has traditionally favored strong drivers like Johnson, which is why he's drawing 28-1 in the latest 2020 Travelers Championship odds from William Hill, tied for eighth-best in ...
- How IT Executives Can Keep Financial Tools Afloat During Market Volatilityon June 24, 2020 at 4:17 am
This includes global financial markets. As with any major world event, this type of upheaval typically comes with increased volumes in trading on stock-exchange floors. The difference is these events ...
- MLB Award, 2020 Playoff Predictions for Shortened 60-Game Seasonon June 23, 2020 at 9:04 pm
Major League Baseball is set for one of its most unpredictable seasons ever. Following months of failed negotiations between owners and players, Commissioner Rob Manfred has imposed a 60-game schedule ...
via Bing News