New multi-scenario modelling of world human population has concluded that even stringent fertility restrictions or a catastrophic mass mortality would not bring about large enough change this century to solve issues of global sustainability.
Published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, ecologists Professor Corey Bradshaw and Professor Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide‘s Environment Institute say that the “virtually locked-in” population growth means the world must focus on policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources and enhance recycling, for more immediate sustainability gains.
Fertility reduction efforts, however, through increased family-planning assistance and education, should still be pursued, as this will lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed by mid-century.
“Global population has risen so fast over the past century that roughly 14% of all the human beings that have ever existed are still alive today – that’s a sobering statistic,” says Professor Bradshaw, Director of Ecological Modelling in the Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “This is considered unsustainable for a range of reasons, not least being able to feed everyone as well as the impact on the climate and environment.
“We examined various scenarios for global human population change to the year 2100 by adjusting fertility and mortality rates to determine the plausible range of population sizes at the end of this century.
“Even a world-wide one-child policy like China’s, implemented over the coming century, or catastrophic mortality events like global conflict or a disease pandemic, would still likely result in 5-10 billion people by 2100.”
The researchers constructed nine different scenarios for continuing population ranging from “business as usual” through various fertility reductions, to highly unlikely broad-scale catastrophes resulting in billions of deaths.
“We were surprised that a five-year WWIII scenario mimicking the same proportion of people killed in the First and Second World Wars combined, barely registered a blip on the human population trajectory this century,” says Professor Barry Brook, Chair of Climate Change at the Environment Institute for this study, and now Professor of Environmental Sustainability at the University of Tasmania.
The Latest on: Human population
via Google News
The Latest on: Human population
- Older population suffers the most (letter)on June 28, 2020 at 2:00 am
COVID-19 has impacted each and every person in our society. Most of us refuse to be a victim of this virus. There is a segment of our population who are ...
- Human microbiota: The microorganisms that make us their homeon June 27, 2020 at 3:15 pm
In this Special Feature, we give an overview of the communities of microorganisms, called microbiota, that form a symbiotic whole with our human cells.
- Wolf Administration announces strategy to ease long-term care facility restrictions through three-step process to protect vulnerable populationson June 27, 2020 at 10:29 am
This guidance ensures a safe return to residents in nursing homes, personal care homes, assisted living residences and private intermediate care facilities.
- Commentary: Why we’re calling on California to create an Anti-Human Trafficking Councilon June 27, 2020 at 1:13 am
Even today in California, innocent men, women and children are forced into servitude. They are victims of labor trafficking, a horrific crime that denies its victims fundamental freedoms and basic ...
- UN to extend enhanced support to the National Human Rights Institutionson June 26, 2020 at 4:09 pm
Response has a clear entry point for the National Human Rights Institutions (NHRIs), particularly in monitoring the risks of human rights violations, acting as a bridge between excluded populations ...
- UN human rights experts raise concern on over China's repression of its populationon June 26, 2020 at 10:30 am
The UN experts asked the international community to act collectively and decisively to ensure China respects human rights and abides by its international obligations.
- Germany boosts WHO’s strategies to support government-led interventions for vulnerable populations in the North-easton June 26, 2020 at 4:07 am
Sometimes I wonder what our lives would have become without the intervention of the humanitarian organizations,” says Alhaji Umara Monguno, a 48-year-old farmer in Monguno Local Government Area, Borno ...
- Hard conversation about populationon June 26, 2020 at 4:00 am
Dipika RaiA world population council is long overdue. How long can the planet, and indeed the human species, bear the burden of unsustainable population growth? Our planet is ...
- 20-30% of US population may potentially be infected in one year: researcheron June 26, 2020 at 2:32 am
Chinese scientists predicted that 20-30 percent of the US population may potentially be infected in one year as the US recorded the highest single day spike in COVID-19 infections on Thursday and its ...
- The Next Great Migration by Sonia Shah review – movement is central to human historyon June 25, 2020 at 11:34 pm
A wild exodus has begun,” writes Sonia Shah early on in The Next Great Migration. “It is happening on every continent and in every ocean.” In response to the climate crisis, plants and animals that ...
via Bing News