A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.
Dr Thomas House, of the University’s Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.
The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, “out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks”.
Dr House commented: “If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak”.
Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. “If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled”.
Chance events can include a person’s location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.
The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.
“With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed”, says Dr House.
The Latest on: Ebola outbreak
via Google News
The Latest on: Ebola outbreak
- Ebola cases in western DR Congo rise to 84 in latest outbreakon August 13, 2020 at 6:30 pm
The number of Ebola cases in the western region of the Democratic Republic of Congo rose to 84, the World Health Organisation said on Thursday.
- WHO: Congo Facing Growing Ebola Crisison August 13, 2020 at 12:29 pm
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is facing a growing Ebola outbreak in its northwest Equateur province in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) says. At his ...
- No Kamala, Ebola Was Nothing Like Coronaviruson August 13, 2020 at 7:30 am
One of most misleading things Kamala Harris said during her first speech as Joe Biden’s running mate was to compare the outbreak of Ebola to coronavirus.
- Kamala Harris compares Obama response to Ebola outbreak to Trump's handling of coronaviruson August 12, 2020 at 3:46 pm
Kamala Harris compared the coronavirus pandemic to the U.S. Ebola outbreak, labeling it a "pandemic" dealt with by the Obama administration.
- Trump, who told Obama to resign after one Ebola death, calls 160,000 COVID-19 deaths "fantastic job"on August 11, 2020 at 2:15 pm
"I think it's been amazing what we've been able to do," Trump said of his response to the coronavirus pandemic ...
- 'Ebola outbreak in DR Congo grave concern'on August 11, 2020 at 7:27 am
YAOUNDE, Cameroon Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) Equateur province continues to be of grave concern, the World Health Organization ...
- New Ebola Outbreak In Congo Creates Unparalleled Challenges During A Pandemicon August 10, 2020 at 7:07 am
Alongside the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing battles with cholera and measles, the DRC has now confirmed almost 80 new cases of Ebola. But what makes this 11th outbreak most frightening is the hotspots ...
- It’s not yet ‘mission accomplished’ for Ebolaon August 9, 2020 at 2:01 pm
The Ebola outbreak in Africa is moving into a new phase that, in many ways, requires even greater attention and action than it has to this point. In addition to fears about the reach of the ...
- The United States announces $7.5 million in additional humanitarian assistance to contain Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congoon August 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm
English News and Press Release on Democratic Republic of the Congo about Contributions, Health and Epidemic; published on 07 Aug 2020 by USAID ...
- What Ebola Taught Susan Rice About the Next Pandemicon August 6, 2020 at 1:36 am
Five years ago, the U.S. was caught flat-footed by a rampaging infection overseas. And one of Joe Biden’s top VP candidates was right in the middle.
via Bing News