A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.
Dr Thomas House, of the University’s Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.
The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, “out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks”.
Dr House commented: “If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak”.
Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. “If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled”.
Chance events can include a person’s location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.
The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.
“With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed”, says Dr House.
The Latest on: Ebola outbreak
via Google News
The Latest on: Ebola outbreak
- BARDA Provides the Sabin Vaccine Institute with an Additional $20 Million for Further Development of Ebola Sudan and Marburg Vaccineson May 13, 2020 at 4:16 am
The Sabin Vaccine Institute (Sabin) and its partner ReiThera Srl today announced that the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the Office of the Assistant Secretary ...
- 'Finally, a virus got me': Ebola expert on nearly dying of coronaviruson May 12, 2020 at 11:20 pm
Peter Piot tells of brush with death and predicts people will suffer effects of virus for years ...
- Medics fight to contain Ebola virus outbreak in Zaire - archive, 1995on May 12, 2020 at 9:30 pm
Experts warn epidemics are on the increase as people migrate and interfere with the environment, transferring new diseases from animal hosts to humans ...
- Doctor who survived Ebola: US needs more coronavirus testing to prevent 'constant interruptions'on May 12, 2020 at 7:56 pm
"We don't have what we need in place to be able to do what needs to be done well, the good bread-and-butter public health: testing, contact tracing, isolating," said Dr. Craig Spencer of New ...
- How do you prevent viral outbreaks? By protecting animal healthon May 12, 2020 at 7:32 am
Ebola and Q fever have jumped from animals to humans. But it is not only because of these diseases that we should include animals in our health policy, but also because of their right to health, ...
- How Ebola Helped Africa Prepare for Coronaviruson May 8, 2020 at 8:00 pm
HIV/Aids, Lassa fever, and tuberculosis are just some of the communicable diseases that African health experts are used to dealing with, and many realized the danger of the coronavirus as soon as they ...
- How Lessons From Ebola Can Help Fight COVID-19on May 8, 2020 at 3:12 am
An infectious disease specialist in Atlanta is drawing on his experiences treating Ebola patients while caring for those with COVID-19.
- Learning from the Ebola Outbreak to Fight COVID-19 in IOM Sierra Leoneon May 8, 2020 at 3:00 am
English News and Press Release on Sierra Leone about Disaster Management, Water Sanitation Hygiene and Epidemic; published on 08 May 2020 by IOM ...
- The double burden of coronavirus and Ebola in eastern DRCon May 8, 2020 at 2:24 am
COVID-19 comes to complicate an already difficult situation, as the region struggles from both armed conflict and an Ebola outbreak that has lasted nearly two years and infected thousands.
- Ebola experts’ tips to fight COVID-19: Listen. Build trust. Show respect.on May 5, 2020 at 8:15 am
As COVID-19’s spread continues, countries are learning lessons from past epidemics, particularly the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
via Bing News