This summer’s world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018–2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.
Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected.
The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models1 to find ‘analogues’ of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century.
The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 – higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity.
Once the algorithm is ‘learned’ (a process which takes a few minutes), predictions are obtained in a few hundredths of a second on a laptop. In comparison, supercomputers require a week using traditional simulation methods.
For the moment, the method only yields an overall average, but scientists now would like to adapt it to make regional predictions and, in addition to temperatures, estimate precipitation and drought trends.
Learn more: 2018-2022 expected to be abnormally hot years
Check this out – not related but please enjoy: https://chipperbirds.com/where-do-birds-go-when-it-rains/
The Latest on: Global warming
via Google News
The Latest on: Global warming
- Experts: Warming makes Delta, other storms power up fasteron October 8, 2020 at 8:16 pm
Hurricane Delta, gaining strength as it bears down on the U.S. Gulf Coast, is the latest and nastiest in a recent flurry of rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes that scientists largely blame on ...
- Global warming powering up Hurricane Delta, other storms faster, experts sayon October 8, 2020 at 8:10 pm
Delta is the latest Atlantic hurricane to rapidly gain strength. Scientists say global warming is to blame for creating stronger storms.
- Pence accuses 'climate alarmists' of exaggerating effect of global warming on hurricanes and wildfireson October 7, 2020 at 7:52 pm
Vice President Mike Pence rejected the role of global warming on worsening hurricanes and wildfires during Wednesday's debate with Sen. Kamala Harris.
- Opinion/Letter: Global warming is the top issueon October 7, 2020 at 5:10 pm
The most critical issue in this election is global warming. If we don’t change direction fast, nothing else will matter.Look around: ...
- Climate-friendly cooling to help ease global warmingon October 6, 2020 at 8:17 am
A new IIASA-led study shows that coordinated international action on energy-efficient, climate-friendly cooling could avoid as much as 600 billion tons CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions in ...
- Rod Stewart Fears ‘We’re Too Late’ to Stop Global Warmingon October 6, 2020 at 7:25 am
Rod Stewart is worried that any action taken to combat climate change wouldn't be enough to stop it. Speaking to Chris Evans on the How to Wow podcast, Stewart said, "I think the good Lord is intent ...
- China Has Successfully Improved Air Quality, But The Efforts Could Unmask Further Global Warmingon September 30, 2020 at 1:23 pm
A new paper suggests China’s success in improving air quality could make climate change mitigation efforts more difficult by unmasking the global warming which aerosols previously “hid.” ...
- Global Warming Impact: Rising Temperature Could Melt Antarctica 'Irreversibly', Warns New Studyon September 30, 2020 at 3:53 am
The world should act now to keep Earth's temperature at an acceptable level to prevent irreversible damage to Antarctica's snow caps.
- Mixing of the planet’s ocean waters is slowing down, speeding up global warming, study findson September 29, 2020 at 3:42 pm
Faster warming of ocean surface waters means more energy for hurricanes but fewer nutrients and less carbon storage.
via Bing News