Further delay in the implementation of comprehensive international climate policies could substantially increase the short-term costs of climate change mitigation.
Global economic growth would be cut back by up to 7 percent within the first decade after climate policy implementation if the current international stalemate is continued until 2030 – compared to 2 percent if a climate agreement is reached by 2015 already, a study to be published next tuesday by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows. Higher costs would in turn increase the threshold for decision-makers to start the transition to a low-carbon economy. Thus, to keep climate targets within reach it seems to be most relevant to not further postpone mitigation, the researchers conclude.
“The transitional economic repercussions that would result if the switch towards a climate-friendly economy is delayed, are comparable to the costs of the financial crisis the world just experienced,” lead-author Gunnar Luderer says. The later climate policy implementation starts, the faster – hence the more expensive – emissions have to be reduced if states world-wide want to achieve the internationally agreed target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. A binding global agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target is currently still under negotiation, while global emissions have continued to rise.
“For the first time, our study quantifies the short-term costs of tiptoeing when confronted with the climate challenge,” Luderer says. “Economists tend to look at how things balance out in the long-term, but decision-makers understandably worry about additional burdens for the people and businesses they are responsible for right now. So increased short-term costs due to delaying climate policy might deter decision-makers from starting the transformation. The initial costs of climate policies thus can be more relevant than the total costs.”
Future energy price increases could be limited
The researchers investigated a number of cost dimensions, including climate policy effects on energy prices. If emissions reductions are delayed beyond 2030, global energy price levels are likely to increase by 80 percent in the short term. Such price increases are of particular concern because of the burden they put on the world’s poor. In the past, comparable energy price increases in developing countries have resulted in massive public opposition and social unrest, like in Indonesia in 1998 after a cutback of fuel subsidies. If an agreement on emissions reductions compatible with the 2 degree target is reached until 2015, short-term energy price increases could be limited to 25 percent.
The Latest on: Climate policy
- How Trump’s reckless climate policy invites a judicial backlash on December 12, 2017 at 2:00 am
Outside contributors' opinions and analysis of the most important issues in politics, science, and culture. Along with his fellow climate-denial zealots in the Trump administration, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt appears hell-bent on rolling back virtually ... […]
- Theresa May unveils new climate change policies as Tories hope to build environmentalist credentials on December 12, 2017 at 12:08 am
Theresa May will unveil a series of new climate change policies in Paris on Tuesday being held to mark the two-year anniversary of the global climate change agreement struck in the city. The move appears to be the latest plank in a new Tory push to stake ... […]
- Ocean plastic: clean it up, but avoid the mistakes of global climate policy on December 11, 2017 at 5:34 pm
In early December 2017 the United Nations Environment Programme in Nairobi announced a resolution on marine litter and microplastics. The move was widely welcomed as the emerging “plastic oceans” crisis has become starkly clear. It is estimated that 8m ... […]
- BRIEF-Exxonmobil Board Reconsidered Proposal Requesting Report On Impacts Of Climate Change Policies on December 11, 2017 at 2:31 pm
Dec 11 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp: * EXXONMOBIL - BOARD RECONSIDERED PROPOSAL REQUESTING REPORT ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES SUBMITTED BY NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND * EXXONMOBIL SAYS BOARD DECIDED TO FURTHER “ENHANCE” DISCLOSURES ... […]
- BRIEF-Exxonmobil Board Reconsidered Proposal Requesting Report On Impacts Of Climate Change Policies (XOM) on December 11, 2017 at 1:27 pm
Dec 11 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp: * EXXONMOBIL - BOARD RECONSIDERED PROPOSAL REQUESTING REPORT ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES SUBMITTED BY NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND * EXXONMOBIL SAYS BOARD DECIDED TO FURTHER "ENHANCE" DISCLOSURES ... […]
- Feds push court to dismiss children climate change lawsuit on December 11, 2017 at 10:57 am
The Trump administration urged a federal court on Monday to dismiss a lawsuit filed against the government by a group of young people who allege the government's policies are driving climate change. Federal lawyers called the claims “unprecedented” and ... […]
- Can ‘Youth Plaintiffs’ Sue the Federal Government for Climate Policies That Violate the Constitution? on December 11, 2017 at 8:53 am
Reading about a climate-change lawsuit is potentially a double threat; it’s an often gloomy topic weighed down by an eye-glazing overlay of legal jargon. But stay with me. This particular story features idealistic youth, the limits of democracy, and an ... […]
- Tilburg University: Climate-smart Agriculture Requires Radical Policy Changes on December 11, 2017 at 2:04 am
At all levels of agricultural regulation -national, European, and international-important changes are required to be able to address the challenges of climate change. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is crucial, on the one hand, to mitigate climate damage ... […]
- 'Thanks, Obama': Former President Credits His Climate Policies for Continued Job Growth Under Trump on December 6, 2017 at 9:49 am
“Thanks, Obama,” the former president told mayors at the North American Climate Summit in Chicago. He prefaced those comments by suggesting his climate policies helped usher in “the longest streak of job creation in American history.” “As we took ... […]
- Guest post: Is gas a bridge to nowhere for UK climate policy? on December 5, 2017 at 3:31 am
Steve Pye is a principal research associate at the UCL Energy Institute, specialising in energy systems analysis. Gas is hugely important for meeting the energy needs of the UK. In 2016, it was used to produce more than 40% of the total electricity ... […]
via Google News and Bing News