Further delay in the implementation of comprehensive international climate policies could substantially increase the short-term costs of climate change mitigation.
Global economic growth would be cut back by up to 7 percent within the first decade after climate policy implementation if the current international stalemate is continued until 2030 – compared to 2 percent if a climate agreement is reached by 2015 already, a study to be published next tuesday by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows. Higher costs would in turn increase the threshold for decision-makers to start the transition to a low-carbon economy. Thus, to keep climate targets within reach it seems to be most relevant to not further postpone mitigation, the researchers conclude.
“The transitional economic repercussions that would result if the switch towards a climate-friendly economy is delayed, are comparable to the costs of the financial crisis the world just experienced,” lead-author Gunnar Luderer says. The later climate policy implementation starts, the faster – hence the more expensive – emissions have to be reduced if states world-wide want to achieve the internationally agreed target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. A binding global agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target is currently still under negotiation, while global emissions have continued to rise.
“For the first time, our study quantifies the short-term costs of tiptoeing when confronted with the climate challenge,” Luderer says. “Economists tend to look at how things balance out in the long-term, but decision-makers understandably worry about additional burdens for the people and businesses they are responsible for right now. So increased short-term costs due to delaying climate policy might deter decision-makers from starting the transformation. The initial costs of climate policies thus can be more relevant than the total costs.”
Future energy price increases could be limited
The researchers investigated a number of cost dimensions, including climate policy effects on energy prices. If emissions reductions are delayed beyond 2030, global energy price levels are likely to increase by 80 percent in the short term. Such price increases are of particular concern because of the burden they put on the world’s poor. In the past, comparable energy price increases in developing countries have resulted in massive public opposition and social unrest, like in Indonesia in 1998 after a cutback of fuel subsidies. If an agreement on emissions reductions compatible with the 2 degree target is reached until 2015, short-term energy price increases could be limited to 25 percent.
The Latest on: Climate policy
- How To Debunk A Climate Change Skeptic on February 22, 2018 at 3:00 am
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott - who is still giving public speeches - just told an audience at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London "It's climate change policy that's doing harm. Climate change itself is probably doing good; or at least ... […]
- Hundreds of mayors stand up to Scott Pruitt over climate change. on February 21, 2018 at 4:53 pm
So far, Pruitt has done a bang-up job of repealing the policy, but the “replace” part has yet to materialize. Now, mayors of cities already hit hard by climate change, like Houston and New Orleans, are banding together with mayors from across the ... […]
- The B.C.-Alberta pipeline fight could undo our national climate plan on February 21, 2018 at 4:48 pm
Is the Prime Minister Trudeau correct? I think he is. The national climate plan we have today is, in large part, influenced by Alberta’s policies (disclosure: I chaired Alberta’s Climate Leadership Panel). Measures like the federal large final emitters ... […]
- Europeans rip Trump on climate change, import record amounts of U.S. coal on February 21, 2018 at 4:39 pm
Some of the biggest buyers are also the biggest critics of the Trump administration’s climate policy, including China and leading European nations that now claim to be the world’s leaders on fighting global warming. The U.S. last year produced 773 ... […]
- Category six cyclone rating needed as storms get bigger, New Zealand Climate Minister says on February 21, 2018 at 4:33 pm
Among the nearly 400 academics, scientists, policy makers and politicians at the conference in the New Zealand capital is American climatologist Michael Mann. Dr Mann told the conference that climate change was happening at a rate that outstripped the ... […]
- One Million Trees Pledged to 'Trump Forest' to Offset President's Anti-Climate Agenda (Video) on February 21, 2018 at 10:33 am
The idea behind the effort is simple. "US President Donald Trump doesn't believe in the science of human-caused climate change. He wants to ignore one of the greatest threats to healthy life on Earth," the project website states. "Trump wants to bring back ... […]
- Toyota Cries Over Climate Change While Their Trade Groups Cry Over Climate Policy on February 21, 2018 at 9:15 am
Don’t be fooled by this ad Toyota is running during the 2018 Winter Olympic Games. Set to images of ice sculpture athletes who are melting – crying even – because of climate change, the elegant voiceover states; “winter has given us beauty, hope ... […]
- 'Trump Forest' planters want to curb climate change one tree at a time on February 21, 2018 at 8:49 am
Adrien Taylor, one of three activists behind the project, launched the effort last March with the aim of planting carbon-absorbing trees to counter Mr. Trump's policies on climate change. The US president has said he aims to pull the US out of the Paris ... […]
- Climate change policies create American jobs on February 21, 2018 at 1:33 am
It’s been a month since the Women’s March, and yelling at politicians in Washington, D.C., on the television feels old. Thankfully, there’s a chance to resist again next Wednesday. The Environmental Protection Agency is holding a listening session in ... […]
- The Energy 202: Trump under pressure to keep an Obama-era climate decision he hasn't tried to kill (yet) on February 20, 2018 at 4:53 am
magazine publisher Steve Forbes called the HFC amendment “one of those rare environmental policies that almost offers something to everyone.” Another international agreement, the Paris climate accord, which allowed nations to voluntarily reduce ... […]
via Google News and Bing News