You really do have to wonder whether a few years from now we’ll look back at the first decade of the 21st century — when food prices spiked, energy prices soared, world population surged, tornados plowed through cities, floods and droughts set records, populations were displaced and governments were threatened by the confluence of it all — and ask ourselves: What were we thinking? How did we not panic when the evidence was so obvious that we’d crossed some growth/climate/natural resource/population redlines all at once?
“The only answer can be denial,” argues Paul Gilding, the veteran Australian environmentalist-entrepreneur, who described this moment in a new book called “The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World.” “When you are surrounded by something so big that requires you to change everything about the way you think and see the world, then denial is the natural response. But the longer we wait, the bigger the response required.”
Gilding cites the work of the Global Footprint Network, an alliance of scientists, which calculates how many “planet Earths” we need to sustain our current growth rates. G.F.N. measures how much land and water area we need to produce the resources we consume and absorb our waste, using prevailing technology. On the whole, says G.F.N., we are currently growing at a rate that is using up the Earth’s resources far faster than they can be sustainably replenished, so we are eating into the future. Right now, global growth is using about 1.5 Earths. “Having only one planet makes this a rather significant problem,” says Gilding.
This is not science fiction. This is what happens when our system of growth and the system of nature hit the wall at once. While in Yemen last year, I saw a tanker truck delivering water in the capital, Sana. Why? Because Sana could be the first big city in the world to run out of water, within a decade. That is what happens when one generation in one country lives at 150 percent of sustainable capacity.
“If you cut down more trees than you grow, you run out of trees,” writes Gilding. “If you put additional nitrogen into a water system, you change the type and quantity of life that water can support. If you thicken the Earth’s CO2 blanket, the Earth gets warmer. If you do all these and many more things at once, you change the way the whole system of planet Earth behaves, with social, economic, and life support impacts. This is not speculation; this is high school science.”
One idea from IT to start: How about a move to create “things” that will last more than 1 human lifespan rather than disposable everything after 1 use???
- The Onion: Planet Earth Doesn’t Know How To Make It Any Clearer It Wants Everyone To Leave (hahayourefunny.wordpress.com)
- Witness an astronaut’s-eye-view of planet Earth [Video] (io9.com)
- He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense (www-formal.stanford.edu)
- Dot Earth: In ‘Earth v. Humanity,’ Nobelists Issue Verdict (dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Global Food Shortage Becomes Urgent as Planet Warms (livescience.com)
- Caixin Online: The earth can sustain 10 billion people (marketwatch.com)
- “Food prices will double in 20 years causing mass world hunger, says Oxfam” and related posts (peakoil.com)
- World population to pass seven billion on October 31: U.N. (via National Post | News) (calculable.org)
- ‘We will solve problems around food and population from the bottom up’ | Annie Kelly (guardian.co.uk)
- Fred Pearce on the UN Population Revisions [Casaubon’s Book] (scienceblogs.com)