The road ahead
Monday, September 8th, 2008
photo credit: mujitra (´???)
The world’s carmakers have mapped out their route to a greener future
THERE is nothing like high oil prices, panic-selling of big cars and the prospect of swingeing new penalties on carbon-spewing vehicles to concentrate the minds of the world’s carmakers. In less than two years something remarkable has happened. Technologies once regarded by horsepower-obsessed marketing departments as politically correct public-relations fluff, never likely to see the light of day, are entering the mainstream just as fast as the car firms can get them there.
Only 18 months ago it was common to hear Toyota’s pioneering Prius hybrid joked about as a funny-looking niche vehicle with which Hollywood stars could painlessly flaunt their green credentials. Although General Motors (GM) had exhibited a plug-in hybrid concept car, called the Chevrolet Volt, early in 2007, hardly anyone took seriously the claim that it might reach production in 2010. And just ten months ago carmakers in America were lining up to lobby Congress against proposed legislation that would oblige them to achieve a fleet-average fuel consumption of 35 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2020. It simply could not be done, they wailed.
In Europe a similar campaign, with the German carmakers to the fore, was being waged against a plan by the European Commission to impose financial penalties by 2012 on companies if their fleets emitted, on average, over 130 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre (g/km). It was, they said, technically impossible to comply with the new rules, which they saw as a wicked plot to emasculate a proud and successful industry.
The grumbling about tighter emissions laws will continue, but spurred on by rocketing prices at the pump and changing customer preferences, the manufacturers have quietly got on with the job of transforming the fuel and CO2 efficiencies of their vehicles. Moreover, the blue-sky thinking of the recent past which, encouraged by large government subsidies and conveniently elastic time horizons, appeared to favour the hydrogen fuel-cell, has been dumped for the practical and achievable. Although carmakers differ over the details of the coming revolution in efficiency, there is now a consensus across the industry about its thrust, and about both the role of the underlying technologies and when they will be on sale.
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